Underwater Volcano Off Oregon Coast Shows Signs of Eruption by Year’s End

An underwater volcano roughly 300 miles off the Oregon coast is showing signs it may erupt before the year’s end, according to researchers from the University of Washington. The Axial Seamount, located nearly 4,900 feet beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, is being closely monitored as seismic activity and magma inflation continue to increase — hallmark indicators of a possible eruption.

“This is one of the most heavily studied underwater volcanoes on the planet,” said Dr. Debbie Kelley, a professor of oceanography at the University of Washington who has spent years researching the site. “Every eruption cycle offers a rare opportunity to learn more about how the Earth works.”

Axial Seamount has erupted three times in recent history — in 1998, 2011, and 2015. The volcano sits along the Juan de Fuca Ridge, a tectonic boundary where magma regularly rises and creates new seafloor. What sets this current cycle apart is the volume of data scientists are collecting in real time through the Cabled Array, one of the world’s largest ocean observatories. The array includes a network of seafloor instruments that measure everything from temperature to pressure and seismic activity.

In recent months, scientists have detected a steady uptick in micro-earthquakes beneath the volcano, coupled with a measurable uplift of the seafloor — signs that magma is pushing its way upward and building pressure inside the caldera.

Despite the increasing activity, scientists say there is no cause for public alarm.

“We get asked a lot if people should worry,” Kelley said. “The answer is no. These underwater eruptions are typically not dangerous to humans. Without the observatory, we likely wouldn’t even know it was happening.”

Unlike explosive eruptions like the 1980 Mount St. Helens disaster — an event that remains etched in the memories of many in the Pacific Northwest — eruptions at Axial Seamount are far less dramatic. The mile-deep ocean above acts as a powerful buffer, suppressing much of the violence seen in land-based eruptions. Additionally, the magma chemistry at Axial lacks the gas-rich compounds that fuel explosive blasts.

“These types of eruptions are relatively gentle,” Kelley explained. “The water pressure and magma composition make them vastly different from what people usually picture when they think of volcanoes.”

While unlikely to trigger a tsunami or large earthquake, the eruption still holds immense scientific value. Researchers hope to witness and analyze the event in real time, offering insights into volcanic behavior that are nearly impossible to capture elsewhere.

“We may go our entire lives without seeing something like this, especially in such detail,” Kelley said. “To witness an eruption underwater is to witness a process most people on Earth will never experience — it’s a major scientific discovery.”

Though an exact timeline remains uncertain, researchers are confident that if current trends continue, Axial Seamount will erupt within the next several months. When it does, scientists like Kelley will be among the first to know — and to share the news with the world.